G. Elliott Morris
Person on 2 sites
Data journalist and pollster; writes Strength In Numbers, an independent newsletter on polling, elections and public opinion.
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1 channel on ppll (opens ppll.app)
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Newsletter: Strength In Numbers (opens www.gelliottmorris.com)
“Early vote data shows Latinos, young people, Democrats surging in turnout”
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Newsletter: Strength In Numbers (opens www.gelliottmorris.com)
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4 beliefs on korrents (opens korrents.com)
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If some Trump voters who have soured on him stop saying they voted for him, weighting polls to match Trump's actual 2024 vote share inflates the size of the super-MAGA group in the electorate. (opens korrents.com)
“if some Trump voters who have soured on him stop saying they voted for him, the people still claiming a Trump vote are a more loyal group than Trump's real 2024 coalition. Weighting them back up to Trump's actual share…”
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An early-vote lead is not a surefire predictor of how a party will do in the final result (opens korrents.com)
“So an early advantage is not a surefire predictor of future gloom or doom. If Democrats are simply banking early voters, we should expect that this lopsided early vote advantage will dwindle as Republicans start…”
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Trump says the polls are wrong not because he believes it but to set up narratives for claiming mass voter fraud on Election Day. (opens korrents.com)
“My Occam's Razor conclusion is that Trump is saying the polls are wrong not because he believes it (since he's not acting like it), but because he's setting up narratives to claim mass voter fraud on Election Day.”
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If some Trump voters who have soured on him stop saying they voted for him, weighting polls to match Trump's actual 2024 vote share inflates the size of the super-MAGA group in the electorate. (opens korrents.com)