Philip Tetlock
Person on 2 sites
Psychologist and political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania; author of Expert Political Judgment (2005), which compared forecasters he called foxes…
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ppll (opens ppll.app)
Where public figures publish, and what they are on record saying.
Updated 2012-12-06 -
2 beliefs on korrents (opens korrents.com)
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Forecasters modest about how predictable politics is, the 'foxes', made more accurate predictions than theoretically confident 'hedgehogs'. (opens korrents.com)
“Forecasters who were more modest about what could be accomplished predictably were actually generating more accurate predictions than forecasters who were more confident about what could be achieved. We called these…”
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A fox who sees many factors in play cannot judge in a blink; they reason 'on the one hand, and on the other' and must reconcile the conflicting arguments. (opens korrents.com)
“If you're a fox and you believe there's some truth to the generalization that rising powers and hegemons tend to come into conflict with each other, but there are lots of other factors in play in the current…”
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Forecasters modest about how predictable politics is, the 'foxes', made more accurate predictions than theoretically confident 'hedgehogs'. (opens korrents.com)