Ryan Greenblatt
Person on 3 sites
Chief scientist at Redwood Research, where he works on technical AI safety and AI control.
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26 beliefs on korrents (opens korrents.com)
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Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. (opens korrents.com)
“Maybe my sort of median expectation is something like uh four or five years of AI progress in a single year.”
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AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. (opens korrents.com)
“I would say that I expect like full automation of AR&D perhaps somewhere around like 2031 2030 and then getting to like the like beats all humans on the job milestone. Maybe I expect median around 2033”
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Machine learning is a shallow field compared with mathematics: even its most important ideas can be explained in a couple of minutes. (opens korrents.com)
“Second, I think ML is a very shallow domain relative to math. So I think in math there's much more of a you find some true deep abstraction um and then like that like if you really understand that thing which is hard…”
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Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. (opens korrents.com)